Completed Work
1. "Learning, Externality, and Optimal Financial Regulation," Journal of Financial Stability, Volume 83, 2026, 101517 (here) (with Deepal Basak, Indiana University) Coverage: FinReg 

2. "The Urban Doom Loop: Commercial Real Estate and Municipal Fiscal Fragility," (with Chuqiao Bi, Cornell University; and Philip Seagraves, Middle Tennessee State University)

3. "Optimal Tax under Dispersed and Distorted Beliefs," June 2025 (here) (with Deepal Basak, Indiana University) (Revise & Resubmit at Journal of Economic Theory)

4. "Under-developed Financial Markets and the Housing Sector in China," Real Estate Economics, Volume 54, pp. 69-111, 2026. (Journal version here) (IMF Working Paper version here) (with Tamim Bayoumi) (Presented at the IMF's interdepartmental surveillance meeting in Nov 2020 and at the IMF Management's surveillance meeting in Oct 2021)

5. "Chinese Housing Market Sentiment Index: A Generative AI Approach and An Application to Monetary Policy Transmission," IMF Working Paper 2024/264 (here) (with Kaiji Chen, Emory University)

6. "Pension Reform and Stock Market Development: Cross-country Evidence," Working Paper (with Shujaat Khan, IMF Economist; Bo Li, IMF Deputy Managing Director and former PBOC Deputy Governor) (Forthcoming at Journal of International Money and Finance)

7. "Addressing the 'Chicken-and-Egg' Dilemma: Pension Reform, Market Coordination, and Policy Design," Working Paper (with Shujaat Khan, IMF Economist; Bo Li, IMF Deputy Managing Director and former PBOC Deputy Governor) (Forthcoming at Journal of Banking and Financial Economics)

8. "The Pricing-out Phenomenon in the U.S. Housing Market." IMF Working Paper 2023/1 (here) (with Francesco Beraldi, IMF Summer Intern and Yale University) (Presented at the 40th Anniversary Spring Conference of the American Real Estate Society in Florida in March 2024)

9. “Government Subsidy in the U.S. Mortgage Market: A Structural Analysis with Bunching,” Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, Volume 2, Issue 22, pp. 82-106, 2024. (here) (with Bowen Shi)

10. “Housing Boom and Headline Inflation: Insights from Machine Learning,” IMF Working Paper 2022/151 (here) (July 2025 draft here) (with Yang Liu and Di Yang, both IMF) (Presented to World Bank in Aug 2022 and to Banco de Portugal in Sep 2023 upon invitation)

11. “Structural Breaks in Carbon Emissions: A Machine Learning Analysis,” IMF Working Paper 2022/9 (here) (with Jiaxiong Yao, IMF) (Foundation of the winning proposal for the Climate Innovation Challenge launched by the IMF's Managing Director in 2021)

12. "COVID-19 Containment Measures and Expected Stock Volatility: High-frequency Evidence from Selected Advanced Economies," COVID Economics, Issue 79, pp. 1-40, May 2021. (here) (with Viral Acharya, NYU Stern & former RBI Deputy Governor; and Yang Liu, IMF) (Presented at the IMF's interdepartmental surveillance meeting in Oct 2020)

13. “Got Hurt for What You Paid? Revisiting Government Subsidy in the U.S. Mortgage Market,” Journal of Real Estate Literature, Volume 29, Issue 2, pp. 115-148, 2021. (here) (Published by American Real Estate Society)

14. “Exit Strategies for Emergency Economic Policies: Cross-Country Lessons from the Withdrawal of COVID-19 Stimulus Measures,” Original Title: “Hang In There: Stock Market Reactions to Withdrawals of COVID-19 Stimulus Measures,” COVID Economics, Issue 60, pp. 57-79, December 2020. (Journal version here; SSRN version here) (with Jorge Chan-Lau, IMF)

15. “U.S. Housing Market during COVID-19: Aggregate and Distributional Evidence,” COVID Economics, Issue 50, pp. 113-154, September 2020. (Journal version here; SSRN version here; detailed explanation by a Chinese YouTube blogger here; Presented at the IMF-wide iLab Spark Event series in January 2021 and the IMF's interdepartmental surveillance meeting in November 2020)

16. "Maximize the Benefits of Trade Liberalization: Evidence from Machine-Learning and Threshold Models," (with Thomas McGregor, IMF) (Part of Chapter 3 of IMF African Department's flagship Regional Economic Outlook (REO), a chapter for which I was an author and coordinator) 
Coverage of the paper/REO Chapter: CNN, Washington Post.

17. “Evidence of Government Subsidy on Mortgage Rate and Default: Revisited,” Journal of Housing Research, Volume 28, Issue 1, pp. 23-49, 2019. (here) (Published by American Real Estate Society)

18. “Semi-parametric Identification of A Class of Dynamic Discrete-Choice Models.” Working Paper (here).

19. “Spillover Effects of FDI in China: from the Perspective of Technology Gaps,” Journal of Renmin University of China (English Edition), 2010(1), pp. 20-42. (here) (with Qian Lu)

Work in Progress
"Interpretable Machine Learning for Macroeconomics and Finance: Hidden Traps and Partial Solutions," with Lamya Kejji (IMF), Gunnar Konig (University of Tubingen), and Iyke Maduako (IMF).

Selected Operational and Professional Work
1. "Global Economic and Financial Implications of Artificial Intelligence: Lessons from a Scenario Planning Exercise," with a large interdepartmental IMF team,  IMF Note Series 2026/002, April 2026 (here).  

2. "Alternative Data, Machine Learning, and Their Applications," Keynote Speech at the Alter Property Data Conference organized by Bank of France, OECD, BIS, IMF, and World Bank, November 21, 2022 (video; conference description).

3. Leading an interdepartmental team of 8 to develop a machine learning-based climate policy analysis toolbox, as part of the multi-year Climate Innovation Challenge launched by the IMF's Managing Director in 2021. Our proposal ranked 1st among 45 proposals in the shortlisting stage and won the final pitch in May 2022. Presented the toolbox at the World Bank-IMF Spring Meetings in April 2023. Launched the toolbox in Morocco in October 2023 IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings, with opening remarks by IMF Management (link). Displayed at the UN Headquarters during the UN General Assembly in September 2024 (video).

4. "Guidance Note for Surveillance Under Article IV Consultations," with a large interdepartmental IMF team as part of the institutional effort to revisit the IMF's strategies for its surveillance work, June 2022 (here).

5. "How to Assess Country Risk: The Vulnerability Exercise Approach Using Machine Learning," with a large interdepartmental IMF team, IMF TNM/21/03 (here) (A technical note underlying the revamping of the IMF-wide vulnerability exercise)

​Referee Services
Quantitative Economics; Real Estate Economics; Journal of Housing Research; Journal of Real Estate Literature; Economic Modelling; Journal of Asian Economics; IMF Economic Review;  PeerJ; Asia-Pacific Journal of Financial Studies; Applied Economics Letters.