Completed Work 1. "The Pricing-out Phenomenon in the U.S. Housing Market." IMF Working Paper 2023/1 (here) (with Francesco Beraldi, IMF Summer Intern and Yale University)(Presented at the 40th Anniversary Spring Conference of the American Real Estate Society in Florida in March 2024) 2. "Housing Boom and Headline Inflation: Insights from Machine Learning." IMF Working Paper 2022/151 (here) (with Yang Liu and Di Yang, both IMF) (Presented to World Bank in Aug 2022 and to Banco de Portugal in Sep 2023 upon invitation) 3. "Structural Breaks in Carbon Emissions: A Machine Learning Analysis." IMF Working Paper 2022/9 (here) (with Jiaxiong Yao, IMF) 4. "COVID-19 Containment Measures and Expected Stock Volatility: High-frequency Evidence from Selected Advanced Economies," COVID Economics, Issue 79, pp. 1-40, May 2021. (Journal website here) (with Viral Acharya, NYU Stern & former RBI Deputy Governor; and Yang Liu, IMF) (Presented at the IMF's interdepartmental surveillance meeting) 5. "Incomplete Financial Markets and the Booming Housing Sector in China." IMF Working Paper 2020/265 (IMF website here; SSRN download here) (with Tamim Bayoumi, IMF) (Supplementary Materials on Cross-country Evidence Based on Machine Learning; with Yang Liu, IMF) (Presented at the IMF's interdepartmental surveillance meeting in Nov 2020 and at the IMF management's surveillance meeting in Oct 2021) 6. “Got Hurt for What You Paid? Revisiting Government Subsidy in the U.S. Mortgage Market,” Journal of Real Estate Literature, Volume 29, Issue 2, pp. 115-148, 2021 (SSRN free version here; Journal version here) (This peer-reviewed journal is published by American Real Estate Society) 7. “Hang In There: Stock Market Reactions to Withdrawals of COVID-19 Stimulus Measures,” COVID Economics, Issue 60, pp. 57-79, December 2020. (Journal website here; SSRN download here) (with Jorge Chan-Lau, IMF) 8. “US Housing Market during COVID-19: Aggregate and Distributional Evidence,” COVID Economics, Issue 50, pp. 113-154, September 2020. (Journal website here; SSRN download here; detailed explanation by a Chinese YouTube blogger here; Presented at the IMF-wide iLab Spark Event series in January 2021 and the IMF's interdepartmental surveillance meeting in November 2020) 9. "Maximize the Benefits of Trade Liberalization: Evidence from Machine-Learning and Threshold Models," (with Thomas McGregor, IMF) (Part of Chapter 3 of IMF African Department's flagship Regional Economic Outlook (REO), a chapter for which I was an author and coordinator) Coverage of the paper/REO Chapter: CNN, Washington Post,IMF Research Perspectives (Semi-Annual, December 2019 Issue) 10. “Evidence of Government Subsidy on Mortgage Rate and Default: Revisited,” Journal of Housing Research, Volume 28, Issue 1, pp. 23-49, 2019. (SSRN free version here; Journal version here) (This peer-reviewed journal is published by American Real Estate Society) 11. "Does Financial Tranquility Call for Stringent Regulation?" IMF Working Paper 2018/123 (IMF website here; SSRN download here) (with Deepal Basak, Indian School of Business) Coverage: FinReg 12. "Government Subsidy in the U.S. Mortgage Market: A Structural Analysis with Bunching." (SSRN draft here; Revise & Resubmit) (with Bowen Shi) 13. "Semi-parametric Identification of A Discrete-Choice Model: An Application to the U.S. Mortgage Market." (draft here) (with Kris Gerardi, Atlanta Fed) 14. “Spillover Effects of FDI in China: from the Perspective of Technology Gaps,” Journal of Renmin University of China (English Edition), 2010(1), pp. 20-42. (draft here) (with Qian Lu)
Work in Progress 1. "Pension Reform and Capital Market Development," with Shujaat Khan, IMF Economist; Bo Li, IMF Deputy Managing Director. 2. "Monetary Policy Transmission with Housing: Micro Evidence from China," with Kaiji Chen (Emory University) and Jia He (Nankai University). 3. "De-Industrialization, Human Capital, and Fiscal Support: Policy Simulations," with Yueling Huang (IMF) and Mi Luo (Peking University). 4. "Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Diffusion of Generative AI Technology: Evidence from Machine Learning."
Selected Operational and Professional Work 1. "Alternative Data, Machine Learning, and Their Applications," Keynote Speech at the Alter Property Data Conference organized by Bank of France, OECD, BIS, IMF, and World Bank, November 21, 2022 (slides here; video here; conference description here). 2. Leading an interdepartmental team of 8 to develop a machine learning-based climate policy analysis toolbox, as part of the multi-year Climate Innovation Challenge launched by the IMF's Managing Director in 2021. Our proposal ranked 1st among 45 proposals in the shortlisting stage and won the final pitch in May 2022 (link to the initial proposal). Presented the toolbox at the World Bank-IMF Spring Meetings in April 2023 (link). To launch the toolbox in Marrakesh in Oct 2023 World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings, with opening remarks by IMF Management (link). 3. "Guidance Note for Surveillance Under Article IV Consultations," with a large interdepartmental IMF team as part of the institutional effort to revisit the IMF's strategies for its surveillance work, June 23, 2022 (here). 4. "How to Assess Country Risk: The Vulnerability Exercise Approach Using Machine Learning," with a large interdepartmental IMF team, IMF TNM/21/03 (here) (This is a technical note underlying the revamping of the IMF-wide vulnerability exercise.)
Referee Services Quantitative Economics; Journal of Housing Research; Journal of Real Estate Literature; Economic Modelling; PeerJ.